What will 2009 bring? No doubt the Irish media will continue it's recession news-fest. Is it just me or do RTE seem to present news of the widening financial crisis with glee? They are very sensitive when it comes to job losses up to a point - who wants to be interviewed on national TV just seconds after your job has been taken away?
What will 2009 mean for retail? I suspect quite a few ambitious retail projects will be forced to close down - even in a strong economic climate I think that too many retail outlets opened up, particularly in the home/DIY segment, where Limerick has been very well served - but are there enough shoppers to sustain all of them?
The main challenges facing us in 2009, I think are, in order of most obvious:
- Reduced house purchases
- Reduced investment into new business
- Reduced construction in all sectors
- More and more businesses folding
Main Drivers for these factors are:
- Reduced confidence
- Mass Emigration (Irish people and Migrant labourers) - reducing demand for housing, retail and entertainment
Worst Case scenario for year-end 2009:
- 20% unemployment
- 20% drop in population
- 1980's style dole-que's, etc
Unless we start spending again, en masse and businesses have to pay their bills on time - this is causing massive cash-flow strains for a lot of businesses in Ireland. And it's a knock-on effect that is becoming harder and harder to tolerate for many. I think January and February will set the tone for the year, so hopefully we won't have to wait too long. There is still a lot of money out there - just how will it be invested?
No comments:
Post a Comment